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2024-12-13 21:34:02

Statement of the work: Personal opinion, for reference only.Of course, I have to say that the above is just my personal shallow thinking about the market. It is really difficult to judge the trend of the market, especially the current market is in an "abnormal" period. We can see that theoretically, the market should have adjusted today, including the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and the adjustment of FTSE A50 index, and the market turnover has shrunk dramatically, but we can see that the market index just does not fall. Showing great resilience. It can be seen that the prediction of short-term market trends is actually very difficult and the uncertainty is very high.


Of course, I have to say that the above is just my personal shallow thinking about the market. It is really difficult to judge the trend of the market, especially the current market is in an "abnormal" period. We can see that theoretically, the market should have adjusted today, including the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and the adjustment of FTSE A50 index, and the market turnover has shrunk dramatically, but we can see that the market index just does not fall. Showing great resilience. It can be seen that the prediction of short-term market trends is actually very difficult and the uncertainty is very high.Based on the above analysis, my judgment on the market trend tomorrow is that the probability of the market closing the Yinxian line tomorrow is relatively large. So how will A shares go tomorrow? Please look at the hand-drawn forecast chart about tomorrow's trend.Let's take a look at the CSI 2000 Index, which represents the trend of small-cap stocks. CSI 2000 Index. At present, it is a typical rising wedge structure. This structure has run to the pressure level of the wedge-shaped upper rail. It has also run to the recent low point. After the low point support line is broken, it becomes the pressure level of the pressure line (the red line in the figure). Therefore, I think that small-cap stocks will actually face greater adjustment pressure tomorrow.


Of course, I have to say that the above is just my personal shallow thinking about the market. It is really difficult to judge the trend of the market, especially the current market is in an "abnormal" period. We can see that theoretically, the market should have adjusted today, including the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and the adjustment of FTSE A50 index, and the market turnover has shrunk dramatically, but we can see that the market index just does not fall. Showing great resilience. It can be seen that the prediction of short-term market trends is actually very difficult and the uncertainty is very high.Why is it so predictable? Three specific reasons:First, from the perspective of pure K-line, yesterday's K-line is a solid negative line with high opening and low volume. Today, although the market rebounded, the volume of transactions shrank by more than 420 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, and the shrinkage rebounded weakly. When it falls, it will increase the volume of the big Yinxian line, and when it rebounds, it will decrease the micro-small Yangxian line. From the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, personally, it does not conform to the rising relationship between volume and price. And judging from today's intraday trend. The signs of the main support in today's session are particularly obvious. If it is not the main support, today's Shanghai Composite Index should be in a green state.

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